Mathew on Monday: the UK and Europe must show moral leadership in today’s London talks on Ukraine

As leaders gather in London today for urgent talks on Ukraine, one truth should sit at the heart of every discussion: this is not simply a diplomatic meeting, it is a moral test – for the UK, for Europe, and for every democratic nation that claims to stand for freedom.

Nearly three years into Russia’s brutal and illegal invasion, Ukraine continues to pay the highest price imaginable. Cities still scarred by missile strikes, families scattered across continents, children growing up under the shadow of war -these are not abstract foreign-policy concerns, they are the lived reality of a people fighting, …

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Starmer must address the Nation

In case the message hasn’t quite got through to our European Leaders, you can’t voice it more starkly than in the new U.S. National Security Strategy.

The new strategy shows the U.S. administration’s contempt towards the European Union (unsurprisingly, given it is a powerful economic competitor). It believes the EU is endangering European civilisation (e.g. “migration policies”, “loss of national identities”, “censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition”), and declares that the U.S. will therefore “cultivate resistance” to save us, which will de facto lead to increasingly interfering in our internal politics to encourage right-wing governments getting elected.

As I have said before, Europe’s leaders have been too obsequious in their pandering to the current U.S. administration. The reason is obvious. We are beholden to the U.S. for many aspects of our security. Yet now we must think how we can manage the Ukraine war and European security on our own. We must bolster urgently our European defences, sufficiently to deter the expansion of Russia hybrid warfare against Europe and its evolution into kinetic warfare, threatening the lives of our own citizens.

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The Additional Member System and its overhang problem

The Additional Member System (AMS), otherwise known as Mixed Member Proportional (MMP), is one of the leading contenders as a Proportional Representation system for UK General Elections. However, as this piece describes, it can turn alarmingly disproportional when the number of parties in contention increases to the levels we are seeing today: five parties in England, and six in Scotland, are now polling at over 10%.

AMS/MMP has been used for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, and for the London Assembly, since devolution came in in 1999 – though the Welsh Parliament (Senedd) has decided to use a closed List system from next year’s election onwards.

Recent polls for next year’s Scottish Parliament election were widely reported as suggesting that the SNP are predicted to win 62 of the 129 seats (48%).

What has been less reported is that this is despite their predicted proportional entitlement being only 43 seats (33.3%). How can this happen in a supposedly proportional system?

The answer lies in what are known as ‘overhangs’, where a party wins more of the constituency seats, elected using FPTP, than their proportion of the list vote justifies.

For example, in a Scottish electoral region with 9 constituencies and 7 list seats, if a party gets 33% of the list vote, its proportional entitlement will usually work out at 6 seats (out of 16). So if it wins 8 of the 9 constituencies, which is quite likely if there are many other parties splitting the votes, it has 2 more seats than its proportional share. The ‘top-up’ component of the system will give it no list seats, but it already has too many for proportionality. What is or can be done about this?

In Scotland, as in the London Assembly and formerly in Wales, a party is allowed to keep its overhang seats, and other parties’ shares are reduced. According to analysis by Ballotbox Scotland current polling data suggest that in next May’s Scottish Parliament election the SNP would have 19 overhang seats; these would come at the expense of Labour (19 instead of 25), Reform (17 instead of 23), Conservatives (11 instead of 14), Liberal Democrats (10 instead of 13) and the Greens (10 instead of 11). Note that one implication is that pro-independence parties (SNP/Greens) would have a majority in the parliament of 72 seats (56%), against their proportional entitlement of 54 (42%).

Germany, which was the first country to adopt an AMS/MMP system, has had a similar problem of overhangs in recent years. But it has dealt with it differently, prioritising proportionality above constituency entitlements. In both 2017 and 2021 it allowed parties to keep overhang seats, but added extra list seats to maintain strict proportionality at national level. This required adding 111 and 133 seats respectively to the German parliament in those two elections.

Following those results, Germany has now adopted a different way of dealing with overhangs, so as to keep the Parliament at a fixed size (630): if a party wins too many constituency seats in a region, some are disallowed, using the percentage achieved in their constituency vote as criterion. In this year’s election 23 constituency winners were disallowed, with those constituencies left without an FPTP elected representative. The alternative under the previous arrangement would have again required adding well over 100 seats to the parliament.

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Tom Arms’ World Review

Venezuela

Venezuela is not—repeat, NOT—a major drug producing country. That is according to the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).

It is not even a major transit country. That honour is reserved for Mexico and Central America which provide the major transport routes from production centres in Colombia, Bolivia and Peru.

Some cocaine is transited to the US through Venezuela but most of the drugs that passing through the South American country are bound for Europe, according to the DEA and UNDOC.

Then why, you may ask, has President Trump and his sidekick Pete Hegseth, blown up boats (allegedly carrying drugs)  coming mainly from Venezuela. So far 87 people have died in these legally suspect attacks. Why also, is a major US naval force led by the world’s largest aircraft carrier (the USS Gerald Ford) parked off the coast of Venezuela with the obvious intent of threatening regime change?

The answer is OIL.

Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves—330 billion barrels compared to 260 billion in Saudi Arabia, the world’s second largest.

But the oil is staying in the ground. It wasn’t always that way. In its production heyday, Venezuela was extracting 3.5 million barrels of oil a day. Current production is up significantly from a year ago but is still only 921,000 barrels a day.

This is because the state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) is corrupt and inefficient. It has not maintained either the oil wells, the pipelines that carry the oil from the Orinoco Basin to coastal shipment centres or the storage depots or ships.

One of the reasons for the inefficiency is that roughly a quarter of Venezuela’s population has fled the oppressive regime of Nicolas Maduro. A large proportion of those refugees are the skilled workers needed to toil in the oil industry.

If Maduro is removed from power—as Donald Trump would dearly love to see—then the Opposition has said that it would privatise the Venezuelan oil industry and invite foreign companies to take over production. In fact, Opposition leader—and Nobel Peace Prize winner—Marina Corina Machado—met with oil companies last April to discuss how they could revive her country’s oil fortunes.

Most of those companies would be American and the exploitation of Venezuela’s heavy crude by American oil companies would be a good fit with Donald Trump’s foreign policy aims.

Honduras

Trump’s policies are nothing if not inconsistent. On the one hand he says he is at war with drug traffickers and his declaration of war justifies blowing up boats without legal due process.

On the other hand, he pardons the former President of Honduras—Juan Orlando Hernandez—who was sentenced to 45 years in prison for drug trafficking.

Hernandez served two terms as president from 2013 to 2021. While in office he was popular with both Barack Obama and Trump. Obama described him as one of “the excellent partners” on the migrant children crisis and Trump endorsed Hernandez when he ran for re-election in 2017.

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Observations of an Expat: MAGA Conned

MAGA is waking up to the fact that it has been conned. Almost everyone else knew years ago that Donal J. Tump is a con artist whose talent lies in feeding prejudices with lies that people want to believe.

But in America—as in most countries—there is a socially conservative and fiscally liberal base of voters who are frightened of change while anxious about their bank balances. The Democrats and old school Republicans had failed them. Trump convinced them that he had the answer with his “Make America Great Again” campaign.

Proof of the MAGA’s disillusionment came this week in the form of a special election for a congressional seat in the deeply conservative state of Tennessee. The Republicans held it, but dropped nine points compared to the 2024 poll. If this result is reflected in next year’s mid-term elections then the Democrats will win up to 30 seats in the House of Representatives and possibly half a dozen in the Senate.

This would give the Democrats control of both houses of Congress and guarantee a third impeachment for Donald Trump.  On top of that, recent polls indicate that up to 18 Republican senators are prepared to break with the president. That would be enough to impeach, convict and remove Trump from the White House.

The causes of the disillusionment are many and varied. Top of the list is what has been termed the “affordability crisis.” For some reason, Trump insists that “the word affordability is a con job by the Democrats” and that prices are actually “way down.”

For any American who walks down a super market aisle this is an obvious porky pie (rhyming cockney slang for lie) that insults the intelligence of even the most loyal MAGA voter.

Inflation is not the only problem. MAGA is delighted at the dramatic drop in people attempting to cross America’s southern border. In 2022 they reached an historic high of 2.2 million apprehensions. In June 2025 they fell to an historic low of 6,000.

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ALDC By-Election Report, 4th December

This week, there were six local by-elections, of which three were Liberal Democrat defences.

In Watford, we secured a decisive win and defended this borough council seat. Congratulations are due to Councillor Callum Robinson and the local team for winning in Watford.

Watford Borough Council, Tudor
Liberal Democrats (Callum Robertson): 821 (52.6%, +4.3)
Reform UK: 433 (27.2%, +17.8 )
Conservative: 148 (9.3%, -10.5)
Labour: 111 (7.0%, -16.4)
Green Party: 77 (4.8%, new)

Liberal Democrats HOLD

In East Devon, we were able to ensure this seat remained Liberal Democrat, with a solid win over Reform UK. Congratulations are also due to Councillor Fran McElhone and the local team.

East Devon District Council, Exmouth Halsdon
Liberal Democrats (Fran McElhone): 551 (35.9%, -3.9)
Reform UK: 438 (28.5%, new)
Conservative: 393 (25.6%, -4.1)
Green Party: 153 (10.0%, new)

Liberal Democrats HOLD

Staying in Devon, we were able to gain this seat off the Conservatives, who were pushed down to third place. Congratulations too to Stephen Middleton and the local team for gaining another council seat for the Lib Dems.

Torridge District Council, Winkleigh
Liberal Democrats (Stephen Middleton): 325 (42.3%, +8.7)
Reform UK: 252 (32.8%, new)
Conservative: 191 (24.9%, -23.7)

Liberal Democrats GAIN from Conservative

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The “right” to a jury trial – a Scottish perspective

All the debate in the press on the “right” to a jury trial in England (and Wales?) has been interesting from a Scottish perspective.

In Scotland, the vast majority of criminal cases are tried in the local Sheriff Court and an accused has no right to a jury trial in the Sheriff Court.

Rather, it is the prosecutor and not the accused who decides whether there will be trial before a jury.

To explain….

In Scotland, the there are three levels of first instance criminal courts:

The Justice of the Peace Courts (minor matters with very limited sentencing powers).

The Sheriff Court – the work horse of the system where most crimes beyond the most serious are tried and which has higher limits on its sentencing power than the JP court.

The High Court of Justiciary – more serious cases including all cases of rape and murder are tried and which has unlimited sentencing powers.

There are no juries in the JP Courts and there are always juries in the High Court. In Scotland, a jury is made up of 15 people and not 12 as in England.

In the Sheriff Court, there is a jury if the matter is tried under solemn procedure and not a jury if the matter is tried under summary procedure.

The sentencing powers of the court if an accused is found guilty are alway greater under solemn procedure than summary procedure.

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A public demonstration of Russian state terror

The Dawn Sturgess Inquiry, conducted by The Rt Hon Lord Hughes of Ombersley, has concluded that Vladimir Putin, along with “all those who sent them (the Russian agents who delivered the poison in Salisbury)”, is responsible for Dawn Sturgess’ death.

This is a conclusion that many in Britain had already reached long before the Inquiry reported. It is not the first time the Russian state has used chemical or radioactive agents on British soil, nor is it the first time Putin’s regime has assassinated those it deems inconvenient.

In 2006, former Russian intelligence official Alexander Litvinenko was poisoned with polonium-21. Beyond our borders, journalist Anna Politkovskaya was shot dead in her apartment block’s lift, following her reporting on Russian war crimes in Chechnya, and Russian liberal opposition leader Boris Nemtsov was shot dead in Moscow, following his condemnation of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its invasion of Donbas. These are not isolated incidents, but are the operating logic of a state that sees murder as a foreign and domestic policy.

The ruling reached in the Dawn Sturgess Inquiry, however, is not just confirmation of what so many knew. It is assigning moral responsibility to the highest level of the Russian state. It asserts, plainly and publicly, that a British citizen died because a hostile foreign power decided that chemical weapons were an acceptable instrument on UK streets.

This flies in the face of our liberal values. Valuing life, liberty, and the rule of law is vital to maintaining liberal democracy. When a dictatorship feels it can export such gross political violence onto our streets, it is not only an attack on individuals, like the late Dawn Sturgess and her family, but on our very democracy.

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Disabled people are under attack

We’re often a forgotten community, yet I’d almost rather we would be forgotten again at the moment.

It’s clear to me that there’s been almost no communication or engagement with disabled people from the current government – and certainly none from the budget.

We’ve been hit hugely hard by first the cost of living and now the most recent budget, and too many conversations are framing us as layabouts, despite how challenging simply existing often is with a disability.

With a broken Access to Work system, a rejected Lib Dem motion (despite the amazing work by Tom Gordon!) on allowing disabled people to travel on their bus passes in commuting hours, and frozen tax brackets eating into an already more expensive life – the energy to find work is dwindling, when it disproportionately involves self-advocacy and challenges.

The Liberal Democrats have done great work, but could and must do more to lead the conversation around disability. We are being scapegoated as fraudulent claimants, when closing tax loopholes on large businesses would be both easier and cheaper and bring in far more income for the government. The £2 billion of fraud claims may sound a lot to an individual, but when it comes to the funding of a government is a drop in the ocean, and barely worth the admin time to deal with.

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The Federal Election results are out!

I am just quickly posting this now in between appointments and I will do some commentary later.

The Federal Returning Officer Crispin Allard sent this email out giving the results of the Federal Committee elections:

I can confirm that today we have completed the count for the internal federal elections, following an initial delay.

The results can be found below:

Federal Board:
Hannah Kitching; Janey Little; Prue Bray

Federal Board – Councillor Rep:
Lucy Nethsingha

Federal Council:
Adrain Hyyrylainen-Trett; Aiden Van de Weyer; April Preston; Candy Piercy; Caroline Leaver; Caron Lindsay; Charley Hasted; Dominic Martin; Donna Harris; Gareth Roberts; Hannah Perkin; Humaira Sanders; Janice Turner; Jenny Wilkinson; Keith Moffit; Rachel Barker; Richard Cole; Sarah Cheung Johnson; Simon McGrath; Teresa Cooper; Victor Chamberlain

Federal Council – Councillor Rep:
Sudhakar Achwal; Tim Pickstone; Thalia Marrington

Federal Policy Committee:
Abrial Jerram; Antony Hook; Duncan Brack; Katie Mansfield; Laura Gordon; Lucy Nethsingha; Martin Horwood; Mohsin Khan; Nick Harvey; Phil Bennion; Rebecca Jones; Richard Cole; Rosie Shimell; Simon McGrath; Zoe Hollowood

Federal Policy Committee – Councillor Rep:
Susan Juned; Thalia Marrington

Federal Conference Committee:
Alison Jenner; Callum Robertson; Chris Adams; Chris Maines; Eleanor Kelly; Gareth Epps; Jennie Rigg; Jess Brown-Fuller; Kath Pinnock; Nick da Costa; Sarah Teather; Shaffaq Mohammed

Federal International Relations Committee:
Adrian Hyyrylainen-Trett; Allessandra Rossetti; Ann Keeling; David Chalmers; Eleanor Rylance; Hannah Bettsworth; Irina von Wiese; Khadija El Morabit

ALDE Delegation:
Chloe Hutchinson; Helen Belcher; Irina von Wiese; Jacqueline Bell; Phil Bennion; Rowan Fitton

I would also like to take this opportunity to remind you that, on 12 November, Josh Babarinde was elected as President, and Victoria Collins was elected as Vice President with responsibility for ethnic minorities.The Federal Returning Officer team extend our sincere thanks to all candidates for putting themselves forward, and to every member who engaged in the process and made their voice heard.

A few quick thoughts:

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Berlin reminded me how loud we must be for Ukraine

Large billboard expressing solidarity UkraineFrom last Wednesday to Sunday, I visited Berlin with my girlfriend. From the museums and Christmas markets to the people and the general atmosphere, I loved it, reminding me why we must seek to rejoin the EU as soon as possible.

But one thing that struck me, almost immediately, was the continued and vocal support for Ukraine in its fight to defend itself against Russian imperialism. From the moment I stepped out of my hotel, which was only a stone’s throw away from the Checkpoint Charlie Museum, the support was evident. A huge Ukrainian flag adorned the top half of the museum, with a message of support in both English and Ukrainian emblazoned across it, while the Soviet Flag Was wrapped up, and the NATO, US, British and French flags flew.

Christmas tree with Ukraine flags instead of baublesAround the corner, there stood a mural for all to see, condemning the political prisoners Russia has taken hostage, along with the Christmas tree sat outside the museum, adorned with Ukrainian flags.

On every lamppost, there were “Slava Ukraini” stickers. On our first night in the city, we saw a man carrying a flagpole with a Ukrainian flag at the end. Government buildings flew the Ukrainian flag. Museums had fundraisers for Ukraine. The general mood wasn’t one of fatigue or apathy, but anger towards Russia for its attack, and hope for Ukraine’s victory. It was inspiring, to say the least.

No doubt, someone will point out that, while admirable, this was only one city out of an entire country and may not reflect the general mood across Germany. But regardless, it stirred in me a sense of frustration with our country’s lack of continued enthusiasm for supporting Ukraine. There will be many reasons for this, and I imagine some will revolve around difficult personal circumstances relating to the cost-of-living crisis, which will no doubt leave no time to worry about anything else – and that is understandable.

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Danny Chambers’ Animal Welfare Bill becomes law

Dogs, cats and ferrets across the world have cause to be grateful to Lib Dem MP Danny Chambers. His Bill preventing puppy smuggling and trafficking of heavily pregnant animals received Royal Assent from the King yesterday and is now the law of the land.

“Britain will no longer be a market for animal cruelty” said Danny to Lib Dem Conference in September. Here’s his whole speech where he was completely upstaged by Vikki Slade’s gorgeous dog Todd.

Speaking as his Bill received Royal Assent, Danny said:

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Jury trial is not a luxury or a quirky tradition

For over 20 years, I have stood in cramped cells and worn-out courtrooms, watching the state line up against the individual. I’ve seen frightened teenagers, exhausted mothers, people who made bad choices and people who were wrongly accused. Throughout it all, one thing has kept our justice system feeling fair: when it really mattered, ordinary people had the final say.

Twelve strangers, chosen from the community, sitting together as a jury.

Now, a Labour Government that claims to be “on the side of the many” is quietly pushing that safeguard towards the exit.

Last week, more than 100 lawyers warned the Ministry of Justice that Labour’s plan to drastically cut jury trials is a serious mistake.

In simple terms, the proposal is this: keep juries only for the very worst crimes—like murder and rape—and move a huge range of other serious offences to be decided by a judge alone. At the same time, they want to give more power to magistrates’ courts, which we already know produce some of the most unequal outcomes, especially for Black and Minority Ethnic Defendants.

And the reason given? The backlog of cases.

Yes, the backlog is real. Cases drag on for years, witnesses move away, memories fade, victims lose hope. But let’s be clear: juries didn’t create this backlog. It was created by political choices—court closures, crumbling buildings, cuts to legal aid, and fewer sitting days. Now, instead of fixing the problems, Labour wants to remove one of the foundations of our justice system.

When I talk to my clients about juries, even the most cynical ones understand. They might not trust judges or politicians, but they value the idea that “people like us” are in the room—a local builder, a teaching assistant, a retired nurse.

Take juries away from most serious cases, and you don’t just change who decides—you change how justice feels. It stops being justice with the public and starts being justice done to the public.

What’s especially frustrating is that Labour should know better. David Lammy’s 2017 review showed that juries were one of the few parts of the system that treated minority ethnic defendants fairly. The big problems were elsewhere—in policing, charging, magistrates’ courts, and sentencing. Having seen clear proof that juries work, Labour’s response seems to be: “Let’s cut them.”

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Federal Election counts happening today

After a three week delay, the counts for the Federal elections will get underway at 10 am.

By the end of the day, we should know who has been elected to the Federal Board, Federal Conference Committee, Federal Policy Committee, Federal International Relations Committee, ALDE delegation, Federal Council and the Councillor representatives to FPC, FCC and FC.

The counts were delayed in the wake of the decision of the Returning Officer to change the ways the diversity quotas operated just one day before the ballots opened. This was successfully challenged to Federal Appeals Panel which led to the results being delayed. 

We …

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Liberal Democrats need to be honest when talking about Digital Services Tax

Embed from Getty Images

The party has had a long standing policy, at least since 2021, on the Digital Services Tax (DST), whereby it has backed its use starting from Autumn 2021 through the “Towards a Fair Global Corporation Tax System” motion passed. Since then we’ve gone into the 2024 general election to triple it from 2% to 6% to fund mental health support in schools, and since then we have wanted to raise to 10% to fund our increases to defence spending in this critical time. All well and good but next fiscal year it’s projected to bring in £1.1billion, so an extra £4 to 5 billion, whilst nice on fiscal headroom scales, it really isn’t making a dent for investing into large departmental spends long term.

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The Lib Dems are at a crossroads – an open letter to the leadership

About a month ago I wrote a piece on my blog examining the rhetoric coming from Ed Davey about appealing to One-Nation Conservatives, and found that his words didn’t actually align with our current position electorally at all. This created a bit of a splash with it being featured on Liberal England, and even earned a response from political analyst William Lane detailing where we should go next. So imagine my annoyance when after the latest budget was unveiled by Labour Ed began speaking out against tax increases in a Tory-like fashion, most shockingly targeting the Mansion Tax of all things!

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Mathew on Monday: Why the Lib Dems must be the credible alternative in a chaotic political landscape

The launch of “Your Party” over the weekend – the Jeremy Corbyn/Zarah Sultana-backed left-wing challenger to Labour – was hyped as being a show of unity, clarity, and a bold new politics. Instead, it descended into exactly the sort of chaotic spectacle that leaves most voters even more weary: factional infighting, activists and organisers being banned within hours, claim and counterclaim splashed across social media, and a level of internal turmoil that normally takes years, not mere minutes, to ferment.

For a party that’s mere days old, and that hasn’t contested a single election yet, it was an extraordinary, almost surreal mess.
And that matters – not because “Your Party” is posed to storm the political landscape (it isn’t), but because it reveals something deeper about the current state of British politics. Across the spectrum, there is a hunger for an alternative to a Labour government that – not even eighteen months into office – feels increasingly managerial, defensive, and exhausted far earlier than anyone expected.

There is a desire for something more hopeful, more principled, more genuinely radical than what Sir Keir Starmer’s team have delivered but equally, people want a party that is serious, credible, competent – not another protest movement that collapses into its own contradictions before it has even begun.

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An OK budget, but it could have been much better

Rachel Reeves’ second budget has some things which we should like plus some things we should dislike.

Ed Davey shouldn’t attack the government for increasing the tax burden. We as a party should accept that people want better public services and this means that the tax burden has to increase.

We should welcome the ending of the two-child benefit cap which has been our party policy for years. Ed has welcomed the changes to fund three-quarters of the cost of the increased use of renewable energy from the government rather than consumers, which will reduce energy bills. We should welcome the near doubling of the Remote Gaming Duty. I think we should welcome the extra 2% on the all three income tax rates for income from property and savings. However, should the income tax rates for dividend income have been increased by more than 2% particularly at the ordinary rate?

We should welcome the support for retail, hospitality and leisure by reducing their business rates. We should welcome the Mansion Tax on homes above £2 million. We should welcome the extension of Air Passenger Duty to private jets over 5.7 tonnes. We should welcome the £2,000 cap to salary sacrifice as it is mostly those on higher incomes who can afford to do this.

We should oppose the introduction of VAT on the Motability Scheme making the cost of having a suitable car more expensive for disabled people. Perhaps we should oppose the 3p per mile tax on Electric Vehicles. However, this had to be introduced at some time as the total revenue on petrol duties reduces because of the switch to Electric Vehicles.

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Ed Davey is wrong to U-turn on a Mansion Tax

There was much in Rachel Reeves’ Budget last week for Liberal Democrats to criticise. The freezing of the income tax bands is a stealth tax. It will gradually push many people over time into higher tax bands, something that will especially hurt low income earners. The new tax on electric vehicles is a retrograde step when we are facing a climate crisis and we need more car owners to go green. In addition, Labour failed to implement a windfall tax on the big banks, something that we have been calling for.

However, it was not all bad news for Liberal …

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Cutting waiting lists and the Budget

In her Budget Statement the Chancellor of the Exchequer stated one of her aims was to cut waiting lists in the NHS.

According to a survey by the Times newspaper earlier this year it was estimated that there were on average 13,600 older people in hospital every day who did not need to be there awaiting social care, costing the NHS £2.9m per year. Therefore, one cannot resolve the problems of the NHS in isolation of social care.

The NHS and social care are in crisis and in need of radical reform, restructuring and cultural change to liberate the professionals from the constraining contract culture into an enabling leadership one. This requires the creation of whole task right sized multi-disciplinary teams aligned behind outcome able to plan, do and evaluate their own work which completes the learning cycle of constant improvement.

There is a wealth of empirical evidence into the social determinants of health which has demonstrated the correlation between income and demand upon the health services. One cannot go on throwing more money at the first aid camp at the bottom of the cliff without building a fence at the top. Treating the symptoms not the cause. A whole systems approach is required.

If the Chancellor really wanted to save money she would increase and not reduce the income of older people. Before the COVID19 pandemic killed 223,396 mainly older dependent people, 80% of the expenditure of health and social care was on older people. Britain has one of the lowest state pensions in the developed world with 2m older people living in poverty. To increase the state pension to lift all older people out of poverty would reduce demand upon the NHS and social care. It would also improve the quality of life of many and if older people did need long term care, applying the same financial assessment which has been in place since 1948 (when few people owned their own house) they would be able to pay more without having to take their house or capital into account which would also increase government revenue from inheritance tax.

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Are we witnessing the end of Britain’s ‘special relationship’ with the US

Ever since 1941 the fundamental assumption of British foreign policy has been that the ‘special relationship’ with the USA is the foundation of our international security and status.  Winston Churchill reimagined Britain as America’s ‘Ango-Saxon’ partner, and as ‘the bridge’ between North America and continental Europe.  Huge numbers of US forces were based in Britain during the war; 10,000 US personnel, in several USAF airbases and intelligence stations, still remain.  Access to US intelligence, nuclear missiles and defence technology is crucial to our defence and security.  The UK has of course become more and more the junior partner in the relationship, but still – policy-makers have argued – sufficiently valuable to Washington to continue to give us privileged status.

What if the special relationship is now over?  President Trump has said he looks forward to Germany becoming the leading power within NATO.  London has been left as much in the dark on Trump’s latest plan for Ukraine as Paris, Berlin and Rome.  Several generations after the shared experience of World War Two that created the special relationship, fewer and fewer Americans (in an increasingly diverse society) see themselves as part of an Anglo-Saxon world or feel any particular affection for Britain.  

Trump, Vance and others on the hard right see Britain as a territory to be gained, a country to be converted to their vision of free market capitalism and ‘Christian nationalism.’  Money flows into Britain from US foundations promoting ‘traditional values’ and patriarchal society.  The US ambassador in London intervenes in public procurement decisions to protest that our government ought to favour US companies.  But there’s little sense of partnership, only repeated denigration of today’s British society and liberal values.

Tony Blair saw Britain as America’s privileged partner because we also played a leading role in Europe.  Boris Johnson fantasised that we could regain a global role without Europe, only to find that we could not even send a carrier task force to the Pacific without support from other navies.  The UK outside the EU remains of some importance to the USA, if we dared to remind Washington.  We’ve just agreed to pay Mauritius £100m a year for the US base on Diego Garcia.  The US benefits from intelligence stations and access to bases in the UK, Cyprus, Ascension Island and beyond.  But US Administrations focussed on China and Latin America place less value on the sharing of other global assets.  ‘America First’ advocates on the right of the MAGA movement are now denigrating Winston Churchill as a warmonger, who took the USA into war in Europe when he should have made peace with Germany.  Even if the Democrats regain control of the Presidency this isolationist resurgence will block a return to Atlantic cooperation.

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Mark Pack’s November report to members

What other Lib Dems can learn from County Durham

Ahead of the local elections in May, Liberal Democrats in County Durham were facing all-up elections on new council boundaries, requiring more candidates than the party had ever stood before.

They rose admirably to the challenge, standing a record number of candidates, making a net gain in the face of a Reform wave, becoming the official opposition on the council  – and continuing to make progress since, including with a by-election win off Reform.

A very impressive record of progress, based in part on flipping around one of our usual approaches. Often we talk about how growing our membership is important to help smaller local parties grow and succeed. But in County Durham they did it the other way round. They identified the most pressing need: for more local election candidates. Then they searched widely for people willing to take on the role, and only then, for those who were not yet members of the party got them to sign up. In other words, they prioritised specific recruitment of people to fit the most needed local roles, and membership growth followed from that.

People who had grown up in areas without any Lib Dem local election candidates were strongly motivated by their personal experiences to want to change that. Membership growth was the later consequence, rather than the initial focus.

Alongside that, they followed our best practice in how to get more members volunteering – breaking down big tasks into small steps people could take on, having a regular schedule of when help would be needed and advertising internally for ways people can help other than, or in addition to, leafleting and canvassing.

That is an important lesson for us to learn more widely, as there has been an odd duality of the story about grassroots strength in the last few years. On many measures, there has been clear and sustained progress – more councillors, fewer councils with no Lib Dems on them, more canvassing taking place outside target seats, fewer council wards going without a Lib Dem candidate and more extensive delivery networks. Yet alongside that our membership total is back to where it was before the (anti-)Brexit boom in membership.

Part of the reason for these contrasting pictures is that the immediate incentive across the party is to find people to help share the workload with. Hence, for example, asking a keen supporter on the doorstep to become a leaflet deliverer rather than a member, as helping get those leaflets out is the immediate priority.

What County Durham shows us, perhaps, is that rather than focusing on membership itself but instead focusing on recruiting people to needed roles may be the way forward – both to bigger local campaign organisations and higher party membership.

Good news for Lib Dem leaflet designers

A new version of Affinity – the software package widely used in the party to design leaflets – is out. Even better, it is now free. There are some advanced paid-for features, but you can do everything needed to produce cracking leaflets with the free version.

Posted in Op-eds and Party Presidency | 2 Comments

ALDC By-Election Report, 27th November

This week saw three principal council by‑elections in England, each offering a glimpse into the shifting local political landscape. The most notable was in Pendle, where the Liberal Democrats faced the challenge of defending this council seat against the rising threat of Reform, whose presence on the ballot paper added uncertainty surrounding the contest.

Beginning in the town of Barlick, we were able to successfully defend this seat with a clear and decisive victory. Polling day happened to fall on Lancashire Day, even though the town itself has sat on the wrong side of the county line for the past fifty years. The Liberal Democrats strengthened our position, while both Labour and the Conservatives saw their vote collapse. Meanwhile, Reform UK made its first appearance here with a sizeable vote share but ultimately fell well short of mounting a serious challenge.

Congratulations are due to Councillor Bryony Hartley and the local team for ensuring this remained a Liberal Democrat seat.

Pendle Borough Council, Barnoldswick
Liberal Democrats (Bryony Hartley): 1,008 (59.8%, +1.5)
Reform UK: 441 (26.2%, new)
Conservative: 170 (10.1%, -11.7)
Labour: 66 (3.9%, -11.1)

Liberal Democrats HOLD

Turnout: 25.8%

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Taxing the poor to protect the rich?

The Chancellor’s budget speech was strong on rhetoric and good intentions. However, with the exception of the property tax, it was almost as though Rachel Reeves was unaware of the existence of the super-rich or the rising income inequality in our society which Morris Pearl, Chair of the Patriotic Millionaires and a former Managing Director at Black Rock believes “threatens everything we hold dear: our democracies, our planet and our broader society…..”.  Much of her address appeared to exclude the top 10% of earners.

In the Spring of 2025 Oxfam published its report “Takers not Makers” which suggested that global billionaire wealth had increased by £1.5trillion in 2024, a significant jump compared with the previous year. In contrast, according to the Office of National Statistics (ONS) the median household disposable income in the UK for the financial year ending 2023 was £34,500. This was a 2.5% decrease on the financial year ending 2022 when median household income was £35,100.

According to figures released by the Equality Trust, the UK is the sixth most unequal country by income of the 38 OECD countries. (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). Many employees are paid the minimum wage to pay for this. The challenge is to address pay differentials within organisations so that everyone gets a fair day’s pay for a fair day’s work.

Unless Government tackles pay differentials, chasing inward investment in search of growth will make the rich richer and create low paid jobs for the masses as it has since the 1980s. The Equality Trust continues that “high income inequality weakens the social fabric and sense of cohesion between us. We are more likely to live, work and socialise in socially and economically segregated ways which can aid misunderstanding, resentment and undermine the sense of shared identity and purpose needed for a cohesive society”.

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Labour’s economic programme: hoodwinking, self-limiting, and failing

If you had asked me in July last year whether I had much hope for Labour’s plans for fixing our stagnating economy, our underfunded public services, and chronically weak social investment, I might have (cautiously) said “maybe”. But a year and four months later, I think I’d like to change my answer to “absolutely not”.

You would think that after fourteen years of being stuck in opposition, whether that be due to bacon sarnies or the Brexit bonanza, they would have had time to think. I, personally, at that time went to school, college, got a job, and fell in and out of love (much like the Parliamentary Labour Party does with their leadership), went to university (and somehow ended up as a Liberal Democrat), but I always thought about what I wanted to do.

However, much like a university student who procrastinates right up until deadline day (pre-ADHD meds me), they’ve put forward something that would barely get a “pass”. They came into government, telling us they would fix the dire state of our economy, but if anything they’ve done the opposite. They spent months handwringing about the importance of work, and intimidating vulnerable people with loss of benefits if they didn’t, but now unemployment is rising – due to their own policy. They promised there would be “no new taxes on working people”, and just as Keir Starmer hoodwinked Labour members in 2021, he’s hoodwinked the public with more stealth taxes.

Rachel Reeves has put in place her “fiscal rules”, and while she may claim to be pro-investment, her very own rules discourage borrowing to invest. She talked about Labour being the “Party of Work”, but by failing to borrow to invest in infrastructure projects, she’s left working people far worse off, with less opportunities, and worse social mobility. Labour are just incoherent, self-contradictory, and seem utterly unable to deliver for Britain right now.

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A Labour budget that does not back the savers, investors or working people

The follow up to Rachel Reeves’ huge raid on employers last year was expected to be more subdued, after all a 3% increase in employers National Insurance Contributions (NICs) did have the expected effect of slowing wage growth and a slowdown on new jobs, what we couldn’t have expected until a few weeks ago is that she’d come back again for it. Not for employers NICs, mind you not directly, but via the limit on Salary Sacrifice. When we have a Pension Commission ongoing on outcomes for current workers saving into private pensions, and have had an excellent piece by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) stating “39% of private sector employees are not on track to meet their target replacement rate”, it seemed unfathomable that this government would actually go for raising billions off Salary Sacrifice schemes. 

Sure enough, budget day comes, and Reeves has done exactly that, with a damning description from the OBR saying this measure would both reduce their employer contributions into pension pots and reduce future wage growth and bonuses. Hardly the message we want to send for the working age person trying to save for retirement. Even more foolhardy is that this reduction in wage growth comes when companies are faced with more employment pressures for hiring, with minimum wages creeping up above inflation, leaving less room for wages to grow and less jobs on the market. The tax choices this week will mean less growth and more unemployment for younger workers, whilst subsidising an ever unsustainable triple lock that benefits from double dipping on high inflation one year and higher nominal wage growth the next in response to inflation, this is not a budget that treats the savings of working age people well.

This budget confirmed the announcement on the Government following the US’ lead (and the EUs position this month) on removing a de minimis threshold on imported items. Paraded as a way to avoid high streets being undercut, it is dipping into the same protectionist rhetoric that the US is using on its tariffs, unconcerned on their policy measure responses on the cost of living. Liberals should never celebrate the imposition of tariffs and find it regrettable the new direction of travel is for new tariffs rather than liberalisation, a burden on the individual to collect items rather than ease, just another way this government is harming productivity. 

The past couple weeks briefed this budget as a Smörgåsbord, that conjures up a well presented Swedish table, but the tax pickings here are anything but. 

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Threshold freezes are a stealth tax on the poor

The Chancellor hopes no one notices. Voters are starting to realise.

There is no getting around it. The NHS and social care need more money – this is the lion’s share of the budget and is where the government is experiencing the greatest growth pressure. Every serious analysis from the IFS, the OBR and the Health Foundation says that demand, staffing pressures and rising clinical complexity make extra funding unavoidable. If we want a system that works, the state will need to raise more revenue.

The question is not whether we need to pay more. The question is how.

The government’s preferred method is to freeze income tax thresholds for year after year, pushing more of people’s wages into taxation without ever having to announce an explicit rise in basic or higher-rate tax. It sounds painless. Nothing changes on the payslip. No parliamentary vote. No headlines. But it is one of the least fair ways possible to raise revenue and it hits ordinary workers far harder than the wealthy.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has been unusually blunt about this. Their latest analysis of threshold freezes states that the impact is equivalent to raising all income tax rates by 3.5% by 2029. The Chancellor hopes no one notices that she did this, but people are starting to realise because their real living standards are not improving and the tax take continues to rise.

The numbers are stark, according to figures from the IFS. In 2021, around 59% of adults paid basic rate income tax. By 2029, that will be 72%. In 2021, 8% of adults paid higher-rate tax. By 2029, that will more than double to 17%. These are not people suddenly earning more in real terms. They are people whose wages are simply keeping pace with inflation while frozen thresholds quietly shift them into higher bands.

The Chancellor has also found another way to push people into paying more tax. By increasing the minimum wage faster than the personal allowance, she guarantees that even part-time workers are drawn into paying income tax for the first time. The IFS calculates that if the freeze is extended again, a full-time minimum wage worker will pay £137 more per year in tax compared with current policy, and £759 more than if thresholds had risen as normal. 

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Addressing the cost-of-dying crisis

Our party is dedicated to resolving the cost-of-living crisis, where inflated prices and insecure or short supply are affecting our ability to afford life’s necessities. However, there is a part of life being negatively impacted by inflation that goes undiscussed: death.

Death is never an easy subject to talk about, nor is it one that many of us want us to seriously contemplate. We will have experienced bereavement at some point in our lives, with many of us having organised the final farewells of family members and loved ones. However, ignoring such issues ignores the problems that inflation is causing during such fraught times.

Between 2004 and 2025, inflation rose by 75% overall, but the cost of funerals increased by 134%. Today, the cost of dying averages £9,797 – covering funerals and associated professional fees and send-off costs – while simple funerals cost £4,285 and direct cremations cost £1,597. These cost the same regardless of household income, meaning that those at the lower end of the scale must spend a greater proportion of annual income than those at the higher end.

Such financial difficulties are compounding the emotional toll of bereavement. While support can be provided in the form of the Funeral Expenses Payment, this only amounts to a maximum of £1,000, with all excess costs being paid out of pocket. Under such conditions, purchasers do not exercise the same consideration for funerals as they would with any other service, often relying on the first funeral provider they encounter, guided by expectations of what funerals should entail and consensus among family members rather than intended wishes or preferences.

Such considerations have led to significant changes in British funereal practices. With cost being a major factor, cremations constitute nearly 80% of final dispositions in the UK annually and public health funerals – services provided by local authorities – have increased. However, these changes entail problems of their own. Depending on where you live, local authorities can deny attendance by family members and loved ones, the inclusion of burial markers or the return of ashes at their discretion when providing public health funerals because of costs which they must bear.

Communities such as Jews and Muslims face disproportionate funeral costs because of their faiths. As Judaism and Islam prescribe burial and prohibit cremation, adherents must pay the higher costs incurred by the former practice.

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Ed Davey reacts to “botched” budget

Ed Davey has described Rachel Reeves’ budget as a failure. He said:

This was a botched Budget delivered by a Chancellor who has diagnosed the disease, but refuses to administer the cure.

This Government has chosen to reject the single biggest thing it could do to turbocharge economic growth and repair the £90 billion Brexit black hole.

Labour was elected on a promise of tackling the cost of living crisis and growing the economy – and this is the second budget where it’s failed to do either.  For millions of people struggling with higher bills, all this budget really offers is higher taxes.

David Chadwick, our Welsh MP, had this to say:

This is yet another budget that fails to deliver the structural changes needed to deliver for the people of Wales.

My constituents will be bitterly disappointed in the lack of help for the cost-of-living crisis and the failure of the Government to listen to Liberal Democrat calls to make energy bills cheaper and cut VAT for hospitality businesses.

Rural communities have been left abandoned again, with Labour’s refusal to compromise on the family farms tax set to cause devastation to the entire wider supply chain.

The Government has deliberately turned its back on the single most effective step it could take to kick-start growth and fill the £90 billion Brexit-shaped hole in the public finances. No wonder our public finances are in such a rough state.

He made further comments on the lifting of the two child benefit cap, which we opposed from the start:

This is a commendable move that will go a long way to addressing Wales’ sky-high child poverty levels, which are amongst the highest in Europe and something the Liberal Democrats have been campaigning on since 2017.

But this could have been done much sooner; thousands of Welsh Children have been dragged into poverty due to the Conservatives and Labour’s refusal to do this sooner.

This must be the start, rather than the end, to reducing child poverty in Wales, with the level of children in poverty almost stagnant since Labour started running the Welsh Government in 1999, we will need further action.

That is why we are calling on the Welsh Government to introduce 30 hours of funded childcare per week for every child in Wales aged between 9 months and 4 years old.

And he welcomed the release of the investment reseerve of the British Coal Staff Superannuation Scheme back to its members. This will not cost the public purse anything but will make a massive difference to the lower paid staff in particular – the office staff and the nurses, for example, who are its members and are mostly women. In fact, it will bring a gain in taxes.

He has been really active on this issue since he was elected last year:

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Giving Palestinians support, strength and hope

On Sunday a friend and former colleague in Gaza called Mamdouh wrote to me, “By the grace of God, we’ve just prepared a delicious meal of falafel using all the traditional fresh ingredients – chickpeas, garlic, parsley and green pepper. It was a truly delightful experience, especially since it’s been a year a half since we last enjoyed falafel made from authentic ingredients rather than canned ones.” His photos and a video show Mamdouh using a hand-mincer to prepare the falafel mix.

Mamdouh was a librarian in one of Gaza’s universities. In the past two years he’s lost his livelihood, his family home, and, most tragically, one of his five children, killed in an Israeli strike only hours before the “ceasefire” was announced. So it’s all the more moving to hear him counting his blessings.

He also takes a great interest in the activities of Lib Dem Friends of Palestine, commenting in detail on photos I’ve sent of, for instance, Conference marking the Recognition of Palestine, or Lib Dems taking part in the regular London peace marches. He’s aware of the Lib Dems’ commitment to justice, the rule of law, human rights and self-determination and nationhood for the Palestinian people. I privately think of him as an honorary Lib Dem himself!

In response to his photos this week, I told Mamdouh that Lib Dems would be out on the streets again this Saturday on International Palestine Solidarity Day. He quickly replied, “I’m moved to hear about the upcoming march in London for the Palestine Solidarity Day – your support gives us strength and hope. May our shared voices bring about meaningful change and a brighter future for all. With heartfelt gratitude, Mamdouh.”

He went on to send me some background on this special day which I didn’t know. It can be tempting to thing these ‘named days’ are just randomly created at the whim of  a marketing director somewhere. But Mamdouh sent this:

The International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People is observed annually on November 29th.

This day was established by the United Nations General Assembly in 1977 and is commemorated each year to express global support for the rights of the Palestinian people and to mark the anniversary of UN Resolution 181, which was adopted on the same date in 1947 and called for the partition of Palestine.

Purpose of the day: To affirm the inalienable rights of the Palestinian people, including their right to self-determination, national independence and the return of refugees.

Activities: Exhibitions, seminars, solidarity gatherings, and the raising of the Palestinian flag at UN offices worldwide.

Symbolism:  This day serves as an opportunity for nations, organisations and individuals to express their support for the Palestinian cause.

In fact that Resolution 181 was no cause for celebration at the time, since Palestinians were, understandably, opposed to the partition of Palestine, and their leaders and their Arab neighbours voted against it. But I’m not going to quibble about this with Mamdouh now, because almost 80 years on from 1947 events have of course panned out very badly for the Palestinians, and at this point it seems appropriate for liberals to take any opportunity we’re given to stand up for the rights of this long-suffering people.

Posted in Op-eds | Tagged and | 5 Comments
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