Canada and Europe

Liberal Democrats around the world cheered when Mark Carney and Ursula Von der Leyen announced that Canada would become an associate member of the European Union.

It was the first substantive circle in Carney’s Venn Diagram diplomacy.

And it made sense. Canada is a liberal democracy governed by the rule of law, international norms and respect for human rights and individual liberties. The EU is the same. The problem is that Europe is in danger of changing dramatically.

The populist right is on the rise across Europe and it is especially dangerous on Europe’s two key states—nuclear power France and economic engine Germany.

This week in elections in the German Lander of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania,  the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) trounced the CDU—the senior partner in Germany’s ruling coalition. The AfD also did well in elections in Berlin and the latest opinion polls show it to be the most popular party with 27 percent of  the vote.

The AfD leadership has links with Neo-Nazis. It wants to end German support for Ukraine and improve relations with Russia. They argue that climate change is a hoax; are Euro-sceptics; believe that Germany’s Nazi past should be re-examined in a positive light; want to expel hundreds of thousands of immigrants and question the value of NATO and the rule of law that political leaders like Mark Carney are trying desperately to preserve.

Across the border in France far-right perennial presidential candidate Marine Le Pen mirrors many of the AfD’s policies with a French twist. Ms Le Pen is projected to win 34 percent of the vote in the  first round of presidential elections next April. This is far ahead of any of the other candidates and makes her the favourite to be the next occupant of the Elysee Palace.

The success of the populist right is mirrored in Italy where Giorgia Meloni governs with the Brothers of Italy. In Austria the Freedom Party is at 37 percent in the opinion polls. Vox in Spain is holding steady at 17-19 percent share of the projected vote; Geert Wilders PVV remains a force in the Netherlands and Sweden’s Sweden Democrats stand at 19  percent in the latest opinion polls. Britain’s Reform Party has dropped  from the lead position after allegations of illegal funding, but it still commands the support of 23 percent of the projected vote and is level with the conservatives who have been forced to move further right in response to the threat from Reform.

There is no single right-wing party platforms that transcends European borders. But there are strong similarities. Across Europe, populist parties of both left and right are challenging the established political consensus, particularly over immigration, national sovereignty and the powers of Brussels. On the right, a significant faction is also questioning Europe’s support for Ukraine and its confrontation with Russia—but the populist right is itself deeply divided over NATO, Russia and the future of the Atlantic alliance.

All of which threatens the cohesion of the European project with which Mark Carney wants to link. The problem is that the European project is the dream of a political elite. For years the public went along with the dream because it was producing prosperity. Now growth in the EU is stuck at 1.2 percent and unemployment in France is 8.3 percent and in the double figures for young people.

Carney wants Canada closer to Europe. The irony is that Europe itself may be moving away from the liberal consensus that made the relationship so attractive.

Greenland

Denmark wins. Greenland wins. NATO wins. Trump thinks—and says—he wins.