For years, Victor Orban’s Hungary has been held up – by admirers and critics alike – as proof that the populist Right, once entrenched, is almost impossible to dislodge. A self-described “illiberal state,” tight media control, constitutional engineering, and a politics built on division and grievance all seemed to point in one direction: permanence. And yet – politics has a habit of reminding us that nothing is permanent.
Yesterday’s election result in Hungary has sent a jolt through that assumption. After more than a decade and a half dominating Hungarian politics, Orban’s grip has been broke by a broad, pro-European opposition. It wasn’t inevitable. It wasn’t easy. But it was possible.
For liberals and democrats here in the UK that matters. Because too often we hear a weary fatalism: that once populists take hold, the game is up; that institutions bend and never recover; that voters, once captured by grievance politics, don’t return. Hungary suggests otherwise.
Here are five takeaways we should take seriously.
- Unity beats purity. Hungary’s opposition didn’t win by fragmenting into ideological silos. It came together-liberals, social democrats, greens, conservatives who believe in democracy-around a shared goal: restoring democratic norms. In the UK we too often default to internal squabbles. Hungary shows that when the stakes are high, cooperation across traditions isn’t a betrayal of values-it’s how you defend them.
- Democracy still matters to voters. Orban’s project relied on the assumption that voters either wouldn’t notice or wouldn’t care about the erosion of democratic checks and balances. But, over time, many did. People care about fairness. They care about whether the system works for them. They may not always use the language of ‘liberal democracy,’ but they recognise when something isn’t right.
- High turnout changes everything. One of the most striking features of the Hungarian result was turnout. When more voters engage, the electorate becomes broader, less polarised, and less easily captured by a narrow base. If liberals and democrats want to win, we shouldn’t just persuade-we should mobilise. Apathy is the populist Right’s quiet ally.
- The populist Right is not invincible. Orban cultivated an image of inevitability. That’s a core part of populist strategy: to appear unstoppable, to sap the opposition’s confidence before a vote is even cast. Hungary punctures that myth. However dominant a movement may seem, it is still subject to the same basic truth: if enough people vote against it, it can be removed.
- Offer hope, not just opposition. Crucially, Hungary’s opposition, led by the new PM-elect Peter Magyar, didn’t just say “not Orban.” It offered a different direction-pro European, outward-looking, and rooted in democratic renewal. Here in the UK, liberals must do the same. Critiquing the populist Right is necessary, but not sufficient. People need something to vote for.
it looks like a relatively gentle week in the Lords, although there will be an opportunity for the Lords to ask the Commons to think again… again… on the Victims and Courts Bill and the Crime and Policing Bill. Yes, it’s ping-pong time in the Lords…
I’ve been doing European politics with the Liberal Democrats on and off since 1989, long enough to know that it’s always worth waiting a little before declaring that a change of government is good news or not. Indeed, I’ve been around so long that I remember when FIDESZ were a welcome part of the liberal family – and Viktor Orban was its leader in those days too.
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